Swindon, England

Integrated Land Use and Transport Model for the Energy and Environmental Evaluation of Urban Policies: the city of Swindon. Open University, Manchester University, Modelistica, Swindon County Council.

Purpose of the study

	Development of an integrated land use and transport model for the evaluation of urban policies from the point of view of energy use and the environment in middle-sized cities in the UK.
	Use the city of Swindon as a case study to demonstrate the usefulness of the methodology and to explore sustainable urban development policies.
	Estimate the consequences and effects of such policies on the location of activities, buildings, land use and transport, with an emphasis on the use of energy and the emissions of contaminating gases.

Methodology

The TRANUS model was used to simulate the existing situation and to make projections up to year 2016 on the basis of alternative scenarios. A database was set up and the model was calibrated to a considerable level of dissagregation in terms of activity types, many types of built form and land uses. The model was asked to simulate a complex real estate system with multiple sub-markets.

The transport system was also represented in great detail, including low and high-occupancy car users, pedestrians, cyclists, railways and several types of buses. Energy use and emissions models were estimated both for the many types of vehicles and the variety of built forms..

The figure represents the complex structure of the urban system in the model of Swindon.

Part of the study was also dedicated to demonstrate the potential usefulness of the interaction between the model and a geographical information system (GIS). For the projections, four scenarios were developed: a Trend Scenario, an Expansion Scenario with Hinterland Development, a Constrained Scenario with little growth allowed outside the urban area and a North-West Concentrated Expansion Scenario.

Trend Scenario: Reidential Density simulated for year 2016

Text Box: Trend Scenario: Reidential Density simulated for year 2016 On the transport side, scenarios considered several configurations of the public transport network, prohibition to private cars in the CBD, a network of bus-only lanes, cycle ways and new park-and-ride facilities combined with suburban railway services.

Results

The project demonstrated that the TRANUS system has the capacity to represent an urban area in a considerable degree of complexity and dissagregation. This included the simulation of the dynamics of the real estate system with new developments, demolitions, substitutions and land use changes. All these elements are affected by the transport system. The capacity of the model to estimate the energy use of floorspace and transport in each scenario and the environmental consequences was also demonstrated for the short and long term projections. The GIS-TRANUS relationship was of great benefit to the project. ArcView and SmallWorld were used as GIS software for the project.

From the point of view of urban policies, the study demonstrated that it is possible to use this type of model to design urban land use policies combined with transport in order to produce a positive impact on the environment, without harming the population or firms. It was shown that land use controls, combined with constraints on the use of the private car and develpoment of public transport services, may contribute considerably to generate reductions in the use of energy and CO2 emissions.

The study also showed that it is not convenient to apply a general set of policies to all cities. Each case must be evaluated in its own terms. It was shown that a model of the kind used in the study was appropriate and provided all the necessary information and guidelines to design optimal combined land use and transport policies.

Because the model of Swindon is relatively small in terms of the number of zones, but highly complex in its conceptual structure, it has been used on several occasions as a teaching-aid tool. Those interested in obtaining a copy of the data base please refer to contact information.

Floorspace energy consumption by scenario and year

Contact information: info@modelistica.com